Operacionalizando a prospecção: projeto e validação de um modelo contextual para prever tecnologias emergentes no setor bancário do irã
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2025.v17i1.951Palavras-chave:
Capacidade de prospecção estratégica, Processador de previsão tecnológica (FPRO), Indústria bancária, Transformação digital, Pesquisa operacional, Modelagem de equações estruturaisResumo
Objetivo: O estudo tem como objetivo apresentar e validar empiricamente o Technology Prediction Processor (FPRO), um framework de prospectiva estratégica desenvolvido para fortalecer a capacidade de antecipação tecnológica e apoiar a tomada de decisão no setor bancário e fintechs de economias em desenvolvimento.
Originalidade/Valor: O FPRO contribui ao integrar, em um modelo operacional unificado, quatro pilares estratégicos: capacidade de prospectiva, infraestrutura informacional, precisão preditiva com validação sistemática e agilidade estratégica. Diferentemente de modelos tradicionais de previsão, o framework é projetado para contextos marcados por intensa transformação digital e elevada incerteza tecnológica, demonstrando alta transferibilidade para outros mercados emergentes.
Método: Aplicou-se um desenho de métodos mistos. Primeiramente, entrevistas semiestruturadas com dezesseis especialistas seniores forneceram insights qualitativos. Em seguida, um Delphi fuzzy de três rodadas refinou as prioridades temáticas. A validação quantitativa utilizou dados de survey com 286 profissionais do setor, analisados por Modelagem de Equações Estruturais (SEM).
Resultados: O modelo FPRO apresentou excelente robustez estatística (RMSEA = 0.022; CFI = 0.97; χ²/df = 1.14). Os resultados confirmam que os quatro motores estratégicos—capacidade de prospectiva, infraestrutura informacional, precisão preditiva e agilidade estratégica—atuam conjuntamente para otimizar a tomada de decisão institucional e os resultados da transformação digital no setor financeiro.
Conclusão: O Technology Prediction Processor constitui uma ferramenta confiável de prospectiva estratégica capaz de apoiar formuladores de políticas, executivos e instituições financeiras na gestão de disrupções tecnológicas. Embora validado no Irã, o modelo demonstra forte aplicabilidade a outros mercados em desenvolvimento.
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