Confrontando futuros: a contribuição do planejamento de cenários para pequenas empresas
Keywords:Planejamento de cenários, Incertezas, Tomada de decisão, Pequenas empresas, Cenários futuros
Objective: on this research we sought to analyze the contribution of scenario planning to decision making in small companies in the Federal District. Thus, it aimed to explore a gap in this area of knowledge where few empirical studies have been developed with companies of this size in Brazil.
Method: a qualitative participatory research was carried out with six small companies in the trade and services sector, applying the Global Business Network (GBN) method of scenario planning. The results were measured by interviews with the participants, in addition to the researcher's perception during the stages of this planning.
Results: there was a concern with the country's economic situation in all scenarios built with the research subjects. All companies gained narratives about the future, with four of them showing superior decision making and the emergence of innovative ideas. However, only in one we observed a certain change in the mental model, the main purpose of this type of planning, according to authors on this topic. Issues such as cognitive barriers and concerns about present situations have compromised the work of exploring future possibilities.
Conclusions: scenario planning can bring greater rationality to decision making in small companies, as seen in half of the participating companies. This can potentially help them overcome the high mortality rate they face in their first years of activity, as well as to better deal with future uncertainties.
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