Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040


  • Daniel Pedrosa Sousa Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil).
  • Gilberto Sarfati Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil)



Prospective scenarios; Private Banking; Offshore finance; Investor´s education; Financial regulation.


Objective: This article aims to explore potential future scenarios for the offshore Private Banking industry serving Brazilian individuals, considering the increasing competition.

Methods:  The research employs the Prospective Scenarios approach, including a Delphi panel with industry’s experts in two rounds of interviews.

Results: The results indicated a consensus among the participants regarding two driving forces for the offshore Private Banking Industry: Regulation and Educational Challenges. The work builds four prospective scenarios for 2040: The Sky is the limit; Swimming against the Tide; The Dark Ages; and Too Much Openness Misses the Optimal Point.

Conclusions: The research   concludes that Private Banking firms should closely monitor the main regulations that can impact their business. In addition, offshore Private Banking firms should invest in educating potential investors in Brazil, especially the rising affluent segment and the millennials demographic group, leveraging all the technological resources at their disposal. Both scholars and practitioners might also replicate the methodology used of prospective scenarios using Delphi (Lima, 2014; Skulmoski, Hartman & Krahn, 2007) method to other sectors.


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Daniel Pedrosa Sousa, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil).

Mestre em Administração de Empresas pela Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil). CEO Brasil Plural Securities.

Gilberto Sarfati, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil)

Doutor em Ciência Política pela Universidade de São Paulo - USP, São Paulo, (Brasil). Coordenador do Mestrado Profissional em Gestão para a Competitividade (MPGC) na Fundação Getulio Vargas - FGV. Professor Adjunto da Escola de Adminstração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas - FGV EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil). 




Alvarez, J. F. M., Sheng, H. H., & Vaz, D. V. (2015). The Internationalization of Spanish-and Portuguese-Speaking Banks. Latin American Business Review, 16(3), 183-204.

Angel, J. J., Harris, L. E., & Spatt, C. S. (2011). Equity trading in the 21st century. The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 1(01), 1-53.

BCG (2019). Global Wealth 2019: Reigniting Radical Growth. A report by Boston Consulting Group, June 2019.

Central Bank of Brazil (2019a): Concentração, Concorrência e Inovação. Relatório de Economia Bancária 2018, cap. 6, p. 137-182.

Central Bank of Brazil (2019b): International Investment position series, Central Bank of Brazil (BCB).

Cleary, K. (2000). Using the Delphi process to reach consensus. Eastern Washington University.

Cummins, R. A., & Gullone, E. (2000, March). Why we should not use 5-point Likert scales: The case for subjective quality of life measurement. In Proceedings, second international conference on quality of life in cities (Vol. 74, p. 93).

CVM (2003): Instrução CVM número 400, de 29 de dezembro de 2003. Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.

CVM (2013): Instrução CVM número 539, de 13 de novembro de 2013. Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.

Deloitte (2015). Wealth Management and Private Banking, Connecting with clients and reinventing the value proposition.

Deloitte (2018). The Deloitte International Wealth Management Centre Ranking 2018. The winding road to future value creation. Third edition.

De Paula, L. F. R. (2002). Expansion strategies of European banks to Brazil and their impacts on the Brazilian banking sector. Latin American Business Review, 3(4), 59-91.

Eichengreen, B., & Fishlow, A. (1998). Contending with capital flows: what is different about the 1990s?. Capital flows and financial crises, 23-68.

Ernst & Young (2018). The evolution of Robo-advisors and Advisor 2.0 model, the future of investment management and financial advisory.

Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (2005). A note on scenario planning. Harvard Business Review Cases.

Geleilate, J., & Forte, S. (2012). Motivações e estratégias de internacionalização dos três maiores bancos brasileiros frente à nova configuração econômica mundial. Revista de Gestão dos Países de Língua Portuguesa, 11(1), 02-12.

Glenn, J. C.; Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures research Methodology, version 3.0. Millenium Project, Washington D.C.

Gonzalez-Carrasco, I., Colomo-Palacios, R., Lopez-Cuadrado, J. L., Garcı, Á., & Ruiz-Mezcua, B. (2012). PB-ADVISOR: A private banking multi-investment portfolio advisor. Information Sciences, 206, 63-82.

Lee, D. K. C., Guo, L., & Wang, Y. (2018). Cryptocurrency: A New Investment Opportunity? Journal of Alternative Investments. 20, (3), 16-40. Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School of Business.

Lima, A. C. (2014). Uma análise do ambiente competitivo dos bancos comerciais no Brasil (Doctoral dissertation, Universidade de São Paulo).

Maaz, R. F. (2018). A atividade de negociações algorítmicas de alta frequência no mercado brasileiro de dólar futuro (Doctoral dissertation).;/bitstream/handle/10438/24594/Dissertation_20180821_RFM.pdf

Molina, V. L. B. (2013). Motivos determinantes para a internacionalização na indústria brasileira de private banking: estudo de caso do Banco Itaú Unibanco SA (Master dissertation).;jsessionid=934875F89866B0A7A4ABAABFA1DCD8EB?sequence=1

Potter, S. M. (2015). Executive Vice President of the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2015 FX Week Conference, New York City, 14 July 2015, pages 3-4.

Securities Act of 1933, Regulation D, Rule 501 (1933).

Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. Currency. Pages, 3, 4 and 35.

Serena, J. M., & Moreno, R. (2016). Domestic financial markets and offshore bond financing. BIS Quarterly Review September.

Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., & Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi method for graduate research. Journal of Information Technology Education: Research, 6(1), 1-21.

Stulz, R. M. (1999). International portfolio flows and security markets.

Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation. Cichester: John Wiley & Sons. Loc 145, 874.




How to Cite

Sousa, D. P., & Sarfati, G. (2022). Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040. Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 14(1), e0632.



Artigos / Articles