Dinâmica de Sistemas e Previsão: Uma Revisão da Literatura

Authors

  • Carolina Resende Haddad Federal University of Santa Catarina
  • André Catapan Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
  • Fernando da Silva Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
  • Mauricio Uriona Maldonado Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2017.v9i3.309

Keywords:

dinâmica de sistemas, previsão, cenários, revisão da literatura

Abstract

Pouco se discute sobre a aplicação conjunta das ferramentas de dinâmica de sistemas e de prospecção. O presente artigo objetiva revisar a literatura no que tange à aplicação conjunta desses assuntos, através do uso de bibliometria e análise contextual. Foram selecionados 35 artigos da base Scopus, abrangendo o período de 1960 a 2014, de acordo com sua relevância e relação com o tema. Os resultados apontam que os principais journals que apresentam ambos os temas são “Technological Forecasting and Social Change” e o “Journal of the Operational Research Society”. A primeira publicação analisada data de 1976 e as publicações seguintes só vieram a partir de 1988. Daim et al. e Lyneis são os autores cujos artigos tiveram o maior número de citações. As principais metodologias utilizadas foram dinâmica de sistemas e estudo de caso. Em relação à análise contextual, identifica-se que muitos artigos utilizam modelagem e simulação para prospectar o futuro e construir cenários, mas poucos discutem se essa aplicação seria a mais indicada e adequada e como se deve utilizar as duas ferramentas em conjunto.

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Published

2017-09-02

How to Cite

Haddad, C. R., Catapan, A., da Silva, F., & Maldonado, M. U. (2017). Dinâmica de Sistemas e Previsão: Uma Revisão da Literatura. Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 9(3), 92–126. https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2017.v9i3.309